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Prescription for treating urban diseases (治理大城市病的药方)
美国康奈尔大学中国经济研究所历时2年研究开出 治理大城市病的药方 2017-06-16 09:53:59 来源:海外网 (相关学术文章/related academic paper: The Marginal Cost of Traffic Congestion and Road Pricing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Beijing) 交通拥堵,是世界各大城市尤其是中等收入国家的“城市病”。近年来,北京市政府多管齐下,实行包括“摇号购车”、“尾号限行”等降低小汽车出行强度、提高交通供给能力、挖掘交通设施潜能、优化职住平衡的措施,治理交通拥堵“城市病”,取得了一定效果。 “国际经验告诉我们,单纯依赖供给侧或者行政手段很难有效的解决拥堵问题。治理拥堵需要一个系统的方法包括城市规划和交通技术的改善以及消费者观念上的转变,但核心应该是道路使用付费制度,即拥堵费制度。”美国康奈尔大学中国经济研究所主任李善军建议,为了进一步解决交通堵塞这个世界性难题,北京应改在大规模改善公共交通之后,开始征收拥堵费。 “征收拥堵费,是一种被经济学家们公认的社会最优的政策调控方式。”李善军介绍,该对策是诺贝尔经济学奖获得者威廉•维克里在1959年为美国纽约市交通厅做解决拥堵问题的咨询报告中首先提出的。其经济学原理在于,通过征收拥堵费使扭曲的交通资源价格回归正常。“我们应该转变观念,把道路作为资源或生产投入来看待。如果我们免费提供一个好的资源或生产投入,对这一资源的需求就会过大。拥堵和污染从根本上讲都是由于资源,比如道路和清洁空气定价不合理导致的”。 具体来讲,每一辆车出行都会增加交通流量,导致其他车辆速度下降。如果道路使用者出行只考虑自身成本,不考虑社会成本,会带来过度的交通需求和拥堵。如果用经济杠杆对车辆征收拥堵费,道路使用者会考量自身成本核算,使交通需求回归较合理水平。 征收拥堵费在世界其他国家许多城市已经有成功应用的先例。早在1975年,新加坡就在世界银行帮助下开始征收拥堵费。近年来,英国伦敦、挪威斯德哥尔摩、意大利米兰,美国洛杉矶、华盛顿特区等一些欧美大城市也开始应用不同形式的拥堵费政策。研究表明,上述城市的交通速度分别提高了10到30个百分点。 为探索北京征收拥堵费的可行性,近两年来,美国康奈尔大学中国经济研究所的研究团队利用北京交通大数据和世界上先进精确的大数据技术,兼顾社会效益、技术可行、效率与公平等因素,进行研究。该研究测算表明,在北京市中心区的高峰期,每辆车每公里会多产生1.02元的社会成本,交通拥堵一年将造成近500亿元的社会损失,占当年北京市国民生产总值的2.34%。如果征收拥堵费,具体数额应根据路段和时段的不同来调整,约为每公里0.05到0.39元之间。实施拥堵费制度后,北京市中心区域的交通速度短期内至少可提升11%,长期效果会更加显著,每年社会福利提高可达15亿元,同时还可以带来400亿元的收入。 “拥堵费制度可以提高资源分配的效率,同时也涉及公平问题。这一政策的实施对不同的社会群体会带来不同的影响。这也关乎民众对该政策的接受程度。”李善军表示,为了调节政策对一部分人可能造成的负面影响,政府需要制定拥堵费收费分配等相应配套政策。 上述研究建议,拥堵费带来的可观税收收入可以用于交通基础设施建设,提高公共交通质量,最大限度的满足民众的出行需要,或者通过不同方式返还给利益受损群体,进一步帮助出行者选择绿色出行方式,达到城市交通的良性循环,同时提高空气质量和居民的生活质量,最终实现公平与效率的统一。(李晓宏)
The opportunities in China Medical Reform
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