The Emerging Markets of Trade, Telecom, and Energy in Mexico

November 17, 2016

Ensuring sustainable future growth for its economy and positive trade relations will require the Mexican government to address several challenges related to the structure of its domestic economy.

The Emerging Markets of Trade, Telecom, and Energy in Mexico

by Meghan Bell, Ross Brown, Gargi Chaudhuri, Juan Matienzo

The Mexican economy is growing quickly, and it is a very interesting emerging market. With the expansion of the Panama Canal, Mexico has greater access to international trade and can expand its telecom industry more easily. Further, the transformation of Mexico’s energy regulations would allow the economy to grow even more.

The Panama Canal was built to connect the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. At the time of its first use in 1914, the Canal was one of the greatest feats of manmade construction and engineering. Over time, however, the Canal became increasingly irrelevant simply because the old locks did not provide enough space for large, Post-Panamax ships, which have a far greater cargo capacity than the older ships. Between 2007 and 2016, a wider lane of locks was constructed and the new canal began operating on June 26, 2016. This development in Central American trade routes has and will continue to have significant implications for one of the biggest players and emerging markets in this area of the world – Mexico.

The new locks can handle over twice the capacity of the old one. The older canal would accommodate ships carrying 5,500 cargo containers whereas the new one can handle ships carrying 13,000 containers [1]. This expansion makes the Central American trade route relevant again in the contemporary world of mass freighting.

With new shipping possibilities available, the potential growth in trade could add more fuel to Mexico’s emerging market potential and help increase international trade. Mexico’s international trade has constituted the largest proportion (~50%) of Mexico’s real GDP expenditure growth over the past five years, and it is also projected to remain crucial for Mexico’s economy in the foreseeable future [2] .

While the US remains Mexico’s largest trading partner for imports and exports, “Mexico boasts one of the world’s largest networks of free-trade agreements (FTAs), linking it with more than 40 countries in three continents. Efforts to diversify economic linkages away from the US will be made through the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Alianza del Pacifico (the Pacific Alliance, which comprises Chili, Peru, Colombia, and Mexico). Efforts will also be made on a bilateral basis with other key economies. For instance, relations with Canada are set to improve and, although economic linkages are small, establishing a Free Trade Agreement with the UK following Brexit is expected to happen eventually.”[3] Further, China is rising in importance to Mexico, as it is Mexico’s second largest trading partner for imports and third most important trading partner for exports.[4]

Consequently, ensuring sustainable future growth for its economy and positive trade relations will require the Mexican government to address several challenges related to the structure of its domestic economy. A 2014 McKinsey report characterized Mexico’s economy as having a “dualistic nature,” which observes a “modern Mexico, a high speed, sophisticated economy with cutting edge auto and aerospace factories, multinationals that compete in global markets, and universities that graduate more engineers than Germany. And there is traditional Mexico, a land of sub-scale, low speed, technologically backward, unproductive enterprises, many of which operate outside the formal economy. It is precisely the deep division between the two economies that has kept Mexico’s growth at disappointingly low levels despite three decades of economic reforms.”[5] Many of these characterizations of the Mexican economy remain equally applicable today.

The report goes on to highlight two key findings that will most likely hold the key to the future of Mexico’s economy (and trade relations): the need to increase worker productivity and improved access to capital for small and medium-sized businesses. As pertains to the former, this will become increasingly important in light of slowing domestic population growth. [6] In regards to the latter, some fintech firms are trying to fill this credit lending gap, and there is tremendous upside potential in this market. Credit growth increased by 19.7% year on year in April 2016,[7] although there is still a need for greater liquidity in the Mexican market.

Even if the challenges highlighted in the McKinsey report are overcome, the Mexican government will be faced with an additional hurdle in order to make its economic and trade diversification strategy successful. This challenge is how to grow and maintain a favorable exchange rate while managing inflationary pressures. In light of the fact that Mexico’s economic trade is so favorable at present in part due to a weak Peso and an economy that is largely manufacturing and commodities based, at some point Mexico could become a “victim of its own success”. As a result, it might be faced with a situation where its products become less competitive due to the fact that the country’s currency has appreciated.

Assuming that Mexico will not take a path where it chooses to peg the Peso to the dollar (similar to what China has done with the Yuan) to maintain favorable trade terms with countries like the US, policy makers will be faced with the challenge of transitioning the Mexican economy to have a greater emphasis on services and less of an emphasis on the export of manufactured goods. This is similar to what China is currently experiencing, albeit in the Chinese case, the process is being managed very carefully; Mexico may not be afforded this luxury.

In addition to international trade, the new shipping possibilities could facilitate Mexico’s rapid expansion in the telecom industry. In 2014, the Mexican government enacted legislation to introduce competition in the industry, which was largely monopolistic at the time. The legislation took some time to show effects, but in the second quarter of 2016, the sector saw 8.4% growth in revenues, the highest of all the sectors in the Mexican economy and three times higher than the overall growth rate of Mexico’s GDP. Additionally, in March 2016, a presidential decree created an agency, the Telecommunications Investment Promotion Agency, that is responsible for installing a 4G LTE network in the country. Billions of dollars have flown in as investments in the Mexican telecommunications industry.[8]

The Federal Telecommunications Institute (FTI) in Mexico has recently postponed its planned auction of the 2.5 GHz band wireless spectrum from the second half of 2016 to the first quarter of 2017. Huge global telecom infrastructure equipment players are looking to get involved in this project and have offered bids – Ericsson AB, Nokia Corp, Cisco Systems, and Motorola Solutions, to name a few.[9] Given the currently low wireless penetration rate and the upcoming upsurge in technological and trade opportunity, these bids are valuable and part of an important move forward for the Mexican economy. Both the government and private actors could use the expansion of the Panama Canal as enabling and supporting this emerging telecom market.

To successfully take advantage of this international interest in the Mexican telecom industry, the nation must prepare for an influx of trading as well. Large amounts of infrastructure equipment as well as large shipments of personal electronic devices will be necessary to meet the presumable increase in demand as Mexico pushes forward to be a country with 4G LTE services. The timing of the expansion of the Panama Canal could not be more fortuitous for those invested in and working to improve Mexico’s telecom savviness, a necessary trait for any country that wants to be a major economic player in today’s technology-heavy world.

And yet, Mexico still faces potential issues with monopolistic behavior in the telecom industry. Carlos Slim, the famous Mexican billionaire, maintained much of his empire by having a huge amount of control over Mexico’s telecom industry. And although President Enrique Pena Nieto’s policies have done much to undo this dominance, Slim still retains about 70% of the cellphone market and 65% of fixed lines. Additionally, Slim himself was involved in the construction of the canal expansion, winning one of the excavation contracts through Consorcio Cilsa Minera Maria, a unit of Slim’s conglomerate business empire.[10]

Slim remains optimistic about his business opportunities, including his hold in the telecom industry. In order to fully take advantage of the immense potential of foreign investment and development into the Mexican telecom industry, Mexico must utilize the well-timed expansion of the Panama Canal while also monitoring the business practices of the telecom industry’s monopolistic past.

On top of the expansion in international trade and the telecom industry, the Mexican economy also has the potential to grow as a result of the potential change in energy regulations. Currently in Mexico, tenders are potentially changing the oil drilling rights in Mexico. For instance, Exxon, Chevron and Hess have formed an alliance to compete for at least 10 different spots to exploit crude oil on the Mexican Coast that will be tendered on December 5th, 2016. In this first auction, the Mexican government intends to raise 44,000 millions of dollars.[11]

The tender is part of a profound transformation in energy regulation policies that President Enrique Peña Nieto has promoted during his time in office and which have not changed in the last 78 years.
In order to modernize the country and encourage foreign investment, the Mexican government plans to boost the economy with a series of reforms in the energy sector. Among these reforms the most important ones are:
a) Set options, so that different national and international companies or holdings can bid for drilling rights in the Mexican Gulf area. This will end the PEMEX drilling monopoly (The only state owned oil company in Mexico).
b) The allowance of individual companies to build gas stations with their own brand in 2017. In 2018, the import of gasoline will also be released so that PEMEX will further lose the monopoly in this sector.
c) Creation of a Mexican Petroleum Fund managed by Bank of Mexico (Banxico) that will hold the long-term savings of revenues received from the mentioned contracts. If this exceeds 3% of the national GDP, the Bank will have to recommend that Congress use them as long term savings, universal pension funds, or spend them on energy and infrastructure projects.
(d) The Regulation of electrical contracts. The government will still be accountable for planning and controlling all of these activities, but the government can also have contracts with individual private companies for energy generation and distribution.[12]

These type of important changes in public policies and rules of the game are common in emerging markets and represent a great opportunity for foreign capital and international enterprise. With an economy growing at 2.5% during 2015, and with projections that are around 2.6% for this year, Mexico has maintained its position as one of the strongest countries within Latin America. The Latin American GDP figures are strongly influenced downwards by the powerful emerging economy of Brazil, which analyst today predict will contract at a rate of around 4% this year and next.[13]

This reform aims to attract investment and with the strong introduction of competition and liberalization of existing constraints to foreign companies, the government claims that energy costs will drop. This is something that companies producing in Mexico hope to take advantage off, as almost 20% of Mexico´s GDP is related to manufacturing.

Some critics are concerned that the reforms are not in the right direction, and that the 6.7%, which represents the oil production of the country´s GDP, will be insufficient to raise relevant funds once the reform is in play. Therefore, critics argue that the promise of generating reserve funds will not be satisfied. They also claim that the government is giving away Mexico’s most precious resource (almost 35% of all income of the Federal Government is related to Oil).[14]

While the process of the reforms in the energetic sector is still going to advance, it is uncertain whether these reforms will succeed and are actually capable of providing greater economic activity and wellbeing like the government projects.

Accordingly, the Mexican economy is experiencing many expansions of industries and potential changes in regulations, which leads it to be a fascinating emerging market.

[1] Chris Kraul, “A New Era in Global Trade Beings, as $5.4-billion Panama Canal Expansion Opens,” L.A. Times, June 26,2016.

[2] “Mexico Country Report,” Economist Intelligence Unit, Forecast closing date August 23, 2016.

[3] “Mexico Country Report,” Economist Intelligence Unit, Forecast closing date August 23, 2016.

[5] “A tale of two Mexico’s: Growth and Prosperity in a two-speed Economy,” McKinsey Global Institute, March 2014.

[6] “A tale of two Mexico’s: Growth and Prosperity in a two-speed Economy,” McKinsey Global Institute, March 2014

[7] “Mexico Country Report,” Economist Intelligence Unit, Forecast closing date August 23, 2016.

[8] Yahoo Finance, “Mexico’s Telecommunications Industry Flourishing,” August 29, 2016.

[9] Nasdaq.com, “Mexico’s IFT Defers 2.5 GHz Band Wireless Spectrum Auction,” August 24, 2016.

[10] Azam Ahmed, Randal C. Archibold, Elisabeth Malkin, “Mexico’s Richest Man Confronts a New Foe: The State that Helped Make Him rich,” N.Y. Times, August 9, 2016.

[11] eleconomista.com, “Exxon Mobil, Chevron y Hess van juntos en Ronda 1.4”, August 21, 2016

[12] Forbes.com.mx, “Los 18 puntos que debes saber de la reforma energética”, August 16, 2014

[13] Imf.org, “World Economic Outlook Update”, January 19, 2016

[14] Forbes.com.mx, “Lo bueno, lo malo y lo feo de la reforma energética”, January 02, 2015

0markets-Final.docx#_ftnref4″>[4] “OECD Quarterly International Trade Statistics, Volume 2016/2”